65% of flights from Washington to Madison arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 3 p.m. departures ran on time 75% of the time; the 8 p.m. ones 55%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (75%). 19% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for DCA → MSN: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 46% of the time. About 1 in 8 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 41 three hours or more; 5.9% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early65%
- 15–30 min late8.9%
- 30–60 min late6.9%
- 1–2 hours late6.4%
- 2–3 hours late4.1%
- 3+ hours late2.4%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled5.9%
Share of all 1,238 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 934 | 62% | 7.3% | −1 min | 13.7% | +86 min | PSA Airlines 92%, Republic Airways 8%, American Airlines 0%, Envoy 0% |
| Delta Air Lines | 304 | 75% | 1.6% | −6 min | 10.5% | +85 min | Republic Airways |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at DCA). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | American Airlines | Delta Air Lines |
|---|---|---|
| 8 a.m. | 71% | — |
| 1 p.m. | 68% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 57% | — |
| 3 p.m. | — | 75% |
| 8 p.m. | 55% | — |
Last flight of the day
On DCA → MSN, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 12.3% of the time, against 4.6% for its earlier flights (2.7× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 3.1% of the time (earlier flights: 2.6%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 10:00 p.m. | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | first flight 10:54 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MSN tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (88%). Worst: February (63%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 199 | 71% | 7.5% |
| Tuesday | 198 | 68% | 5.6% |
| Wednesday | 196 | 62% | 3.6% |
| Thursday | 192 | 66% | 4.7% |
| Friday | 192 | 63% | 4.7% |
| Saturday | 76 | — | — |
| Sunday | 185 | 61% | 7.0% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 50 · air traffic/airport 17 · airline 6
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 5221 | 1:59 p.m. | 206 | 67% | 4.4% | +1 min | PSA Airlines |
| DL 5645 | 3:40 p.m. | 304 | 75% | 1.6% | −6 min | Republic Airways |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 1 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 2 |
Questions
How often are flights from DCA to MSN on time?
65% of 1,238 scheduled flights from Washington, DC to Madison, WI arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 5.9% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly DCA to MSN?
Flights scheduled to leave at 3 p.m. were the most reliable (75% on time). The 8 p.m. departures were the least (55%).
Which airline is most on time from DCA to MSN?
Delta Air Lines: 75% of its 304 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 62%.
What month has the most delays from DCA to MSN?
February (63% on time). The best month is October (88%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from DCA to MSN more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last DCA–MSN flight of the day was cancelled 12.3% of the time over the past year, against 4.6% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSN → DCA (return)
- Washington Reagan National (DCA) delays by hour
- Flights into Dane Truax (MSN)
- American Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.