76% of flights from Newark to Minneapolis arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 86% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 57%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (76%). 13% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for EWR → MSP: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 48% of the time. About 1 in 12 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 35 three hours or more; 4.6% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early76%
- 15–30 min late5.6%
- 30–60 min late5.9%
- 1–2 hours late4.0%
- 2–3 hours late1.3%
- 3+ hours late2.9%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled4.6%
Share of all 2,268 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,291 | 75% | 4.6% | −10 min | 9.2% | +115 min | Delta Air Lines 96%, Endeavor Air 3%, SkyWest 1% |
| United Airlines | 977 | 76% | 4.6% | −10 min | 6.8% | +73 min | United Airlines 51%, Republic Airways 49% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at EWR). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | United Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 86% | — |
| 7 a.m. | — | 82% |
| 9 a.m. | — | 81% |
| 11 a.m. | 79% | — |
| 1 p.m. | — | 78% |
| 2 p.m. | — | 76% |
| 3 p.m. | 73% | — |
| 6 p.m. | 57% | — |
| 9 p.m. | — | 70% |
Last flight of the day
On EWR → MSP, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 4.4% of the time, against 4.6% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 4.0% of the time (earlier flights: 2.3%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6:45 p.m. | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | first flight 6:15 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 9:55 p.m. | 4.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | first flight 7:18 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: January (83%). Worst: July (62%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 345 | 70% | 7.5% |
| Tuesday | 332 | 76% | 5.4% |
| Wednesday | 327 | 83% | 1.5% |
| Thursday | 337 | 76% | 2.7% |
| Friday | 339 | 79% | 2.4% |
| Saturday | 264 | 75% | 5.3% |
| Sunday | 324 | 68% | 7.4% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 62 · airline 26 · air traffic/airport 16
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 1641 | 6:15 a.m. | 365 | 84% | 5.2% | −15 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2864 | 11:47 a.m. | 350 | 79% | 3.7% | −10 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2895 | 3:00 p.m. | 174 | 74% | 5.2% | −10 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2866 | 6:40 p.m. | 196 | 68% | 5.1% | −8 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | 7 | 0% | 1 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 0 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 5 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 6 | 0% | 2 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 6 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Newark or Minneapolis. None has been clearly more reliable than EWR → MSP.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| EWR → MSP (this route) | 2,268 | 76% | 4.6% |
| LGA → MSP LaGuardia to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 1,971 | 78% | 2.9% |
| JFK → MSP New York JFK to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 1,096 | 74% | 4.3% |
Questions
How often are flights from EWR to MSP on time?
76% of 2,268 scheduled flights from Newark, NJ to Minneapolis, MN arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 4.6% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly EWR to MSP?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (86% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (57%).
Which airline is most on time from EWR to MSP?
United Airlines: 76% of its 977 flights on the route arrived on time. Delta Air Lines: 75%.
What month has the most delays from EWR to MSP?
July (62% on time). The best month is January (83%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from EWR to MSP more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last EWR–MSP flight of the day was cancelled 4.4% of the time over the past year, against 4.6% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSP → EWR (return)
- Newark (EWR) delays by hour
- Flights into Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- United Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.