85% of flights from Medford to Seattle arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is better than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 96% of the time; the 7 p.m. ones 75%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (91%). 6% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MFR → SEA: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 63% of the time. About 1 in 27 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 177 three hours or more; 1.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early85%
- 15–30 min late5.7%
- 30–60 min late3.7%
- 1–2 hours late2.2%
- 2–3 hours late1.0%
- 3+ hours late0.6%
- Diverted0.1%
- Cancelled1.7%
Share of all 2,306 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,245 | 80% | 2.3% | −3 min | 4.4% | +53 min | Horizon Air 79%, SkyWest 21% |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,061 | 91% | 1.0% | −14 min | 3.0% | +71 min | SkyWest |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MFR). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Alaska Airlines | Delta Air Lines |
|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | 86% | — |
| 6 a.m. | — | 96% |
| 11 a.m. | — | 87% |
| noon | — | 84% |
| 1 p.m. | 77% | — |
| 5 p.m. | 85% | 92% |
| 7 p.m. | 75% | — |
Last flight of the day
On MFR → SEA, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.8% of the time, against 2.1% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 0.1% of the time (earlier flights: 0.8%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 7:50 p.m. | 1.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | first flight 5:58 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 5:25 p.m. | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.3% | first flight 6:15 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: March (92%). Worst: January (79%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 346 | 85% | 1.5% |
| Tuesday | 328 | 87% | 1.2% |
| Wednesday | 329 | 88% | 1.5% |
| Thursday | 335 | 83% | 3.0% |
| Friday | 336 | 84% | 2.7% |
| Saturday | 301 | 88% | 0.3% |
| Sunday | 331 | 81% | 1.5% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 19 · airline 12 · air traffic/airport 8
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 2452 | 5:45 a.m. | 363 | 87% | 5.0% | −5 min | Horizon Air |
| DL 3781 | 6:15 a.m. | 255 | 96% | 0.8% | −16 min | SkyWest |
| DL 3770 | 5:25 p.m. | 348 | 92% | 0.6% | −15 min | SkyWest |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 5 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 7 | 29% | 0 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 6 | 33% | 3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 6 | 33% | 2 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 5 | 40% | 0 |
Questions
How often are flights from MFR to SEA on time?
85% of 2,306 scheduled flights from Medford, OR to Seattle, WA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 1.7% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MFR to SEA?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (96% on time). The 7 p.m. departures were the least (75%).
Which airline is most on time from MFR to SEA?
Delta Air Lines: 91% of its 1,061 flights on the route arrived on time. Alaska Airlines: 80%.
What month has the most delays from MFR to SEA?
January (79% on time). The best month is March (92%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MFR to SEA more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last MFR–SEA flight of the day was cancelled 0.8% of the time over the past year, against 2.1% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SEA → MFR (return)
- Rogue Valley -Medford (MFR) delays by hour
- Flights into Seattle-Tacoma (SEA)
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.