69% of flights from Moline to Chicago arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 80% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 56%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (69%). 18% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MLI → ORD: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 41% of the time. About 1 in 8 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 27 three hours or more; 4.5% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early69%
- 15–30 min late7.5%
- 30–60 min late6.1%
- 1–2 hours late6.1%
- 2–3 hours late3.2%
- 3+ hours late3.7%
- Diverted0.1%
- Cancelled4.5%
Share of all 2,969 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 1,941 | 69% | 4.1% | −2 min | 12.9% | +105 min | SkyWest 65%, GoJet 34%, Republic Airways 1% |
| American Airlines | 1,028 | 68% | 5.3% | −9 min | 13.5% | +99 min | Envoy 59%, SkyWest 41% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MLI). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | United Airlines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 81% | 79% |
| 8 a.m. | 73% | — |
| 10 a.m. | 71% | — |
| 11 a.m. | — | 77% |
| 1 p.m. | 72% | — |
| 3 p.m. | 58% | — |
| 5 p.m. | 58% | — |
| 6 p.m. | — | 55% |
Last flight of the day
On MLI → ORD, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 7.1% of the time, against 3.7% for its earlier flights (1.9× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 4.0% of the time (earlier flights: 3.7%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 6:50 p.m. | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | first flight 6:00 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 6:30 p.m. | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | first flight 6:30 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in ORD tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (83%). Worst: January (62%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 438 | 66% | 7.3% |
| Tuesday | 419 | 76% | 3.3% |
| Wednesday | 419 | 69% | 4.5% |
| Thursday | 431 | 71% | 3.0% |
| Friday | 427 | 65% | 3.5% |
| Saturday | 402 | 67% | 5.2% |
| Sunday | 433 | 66% | 4.9% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 100 · air traffic/airport 33 · airline 2
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA 5449 | 6:30 a.m. | 166 | 79% | 4.2% | −10 min | SkyWest |
| UA 5957 | 6:30 p.m. | 151 | 56% | 9.9% | +3 min | SkyWest |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 8 | 0% | 3 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 8 | 0% | 2 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 8 | 0% | 0 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 8 | 0% | 2 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 8 | 0% | 3 |
Questions
How often are flights from MLI to ORD on time?
69% of 2,969 scheduled flights from Moline, IL to Chicago, IL arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 4.5% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MLI to ORD?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (80% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (56%).
Which airline is most on time from MLI to ORD?
United Airlines: 69% of its 1,941 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 68%.
What month has the most delays from MLI to ORD?
January (62% on time). The best month is September (83%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MLI to ORD more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last MLI–ORD flight of the day was cancelled 7.1% of the time over the past year, against 3.7% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- ORD → MLI (return)
- Quad City (MLI) delays by hour
- Flights into Chicago O'Hare (ORD)
- United Airlines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.