62% of flights from Rochester to Washington arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 84% of the time; the 5 p.m. ones 42%. 21% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for ROC → DCA: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 44% of the time. About 1 in 7 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 23 three hours or more; 6.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early62%
- 15–30 min late8.1%
- 30–60 min late8.5%
- 1–2 hours late6.0%
- 2–3 hours late3.7%
- 3+ hours late4.4%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled6.7%
Share of all 1,033 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 1,033 | 62% | 6.7% | −2 min | 14.0% | +110 min | PSA Airlines 79%, Republic Airways 15%, Envoy 6% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at ROC). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
Last flight of the day
On ROC → DCA, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 8.0% of the time, against 6.0% for its earlier flights (1.3× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 5.8% of the time (earlier flights: 3.6%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5:35 p.m. | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | first flight 5:29 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in DCA tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (90%). Worst: February (60%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 156 | 62% | 9.6% |
| Tuesday | 154 | 63% | 8.4% |
| Wednesday | 153 | 62% | 4.6% |
| Thursday | 151 | 58% | 4.0% |
| Friday | 152 | 58% | 6.6% |
| Saturday | 112 | 71% | 5.4% |
| Sunday | 155 | 64% | 7.7% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 50 · air traffic/airport 12 · airline 6 · security 1
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 5351 | 5:20 a.m. | 150 | 86% | 6.7% | −17 min | PSA Airlines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 0 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 2 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Rochester or Washington. BUF → BWI has been 23 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROC → DCA (this route) | 1,033 | 62% | 6.7% |
| BUF → BWI Buffalo Niagara to Baltimore/Washington | 1,728 | 85% | 1.5% |
| BUF → IAD Buffalo Niagara to Washington Dulles | 1,150 | 81% | 2.4% |
| ROC → BWI Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester to Baltimore/Washington | 1,102 | 81% | 1.3% |
| ROC → IAD Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester to Washington Dulles | 1,250 | 80% | 3.0% |
| BUF → DCA Buffalo Niagara to Washington Reagan National | 1,108 | 62% | 5.4% |
Questions
How often are flights from ROC to DCA on time?
62% of 1,033 scheduled flights from Rochester, NY to Washington, DC arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 6.7% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly ROC to DCA?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (84% on time). The 5 p.m. departures were the least (42%).
What month has the most delays from ROC to DCA?
February (60% on time). The best month is October (90%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from ROC to DCA more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last ROC–DCA flight of the day was cancelled 8.0% of the time over the past year, against 6.0% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- DCA → ROC (return)
- Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester (ROC) delays by hour
- Flights into Washington Reagan National (DCA)
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.