78% of flights from Tampa to Buffalo arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is about the typical U.S. route. 8% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for TPA → BUF: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 51% of the time. About 1 in 15 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 119 three hours or more; 1.3% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early78%
- 15–30 min late7.0%
- 30–60 min late6.5%
- 1–2 hours late4.5%
- 2–3 hours late1.3%
- 3+ hours late0.8%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled1.3%
Share of all 711 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 626 | 78% | 1.3% | −3 min | 6.4% | +61 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Frontier Airlines | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at TPA). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Southwest Airlines |
|---|---|
| 7 a.m. | 93% |
Last flight of the day
On TPA → BUF, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 1.6% of the time, against 1.5% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 1.2% of the time (earlier flights: 0.4%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8:55 a.m. | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | first flight 8:45 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (92%). Worst: March (74%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 103 | 78% | 1.9% |
| Tuesday | 93 | — | — |
| Wednesday | 87 | — | — |
| Thursday | 112 | 82% | 0.0% |
| Friday | 100 | 81% | 0.0% |
| Saturday | 104 | 78% | 1.0% |
| Sunday | 112 | 72% | 3.6% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 7 · airline 2
Month by month
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 0 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| May 2, 2026 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
Questions
How often are flights from TPA to BUF on time?
78% of 711 scheduled flights from Tampa, FL to Buffalo, NY arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 1.3% were cancelled.
What month has the most delays from TPA to BUF?
March (74% on time). The best month is September (92%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from TPA to BUF more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last TPA–BUF flight of the day was cancelled 1.6% of the time over the past year, against 1.5% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- BUF → TPA (return)
- Tampa (TPA) delays by hour
- Flights into Buffalo Niagara (BUF)
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.