71% of flights from Chicago to Raleigh arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 8 a.m. departures ran on time 87% of the time; the 8 p.m. ones 48%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (76%). 13% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for ORD → RDU: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 48% of the time. About 1 in 9 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 40 three hours or more; 2.3% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early71%
- 15–30 min late8.5%
- 30–60 min late7.3%
- 1–2 hours late5.7%
- 2–3 hours late2.4%
- 3+ hours late2.5%
- Diverted0.1%
- Cancelled2.3%
Share of all 3,742 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,059 | 68% | 3.1% | −4 min | 12.2% | +84 min | Republic Airways 49%, American Airlines 25%, Envoy 25%, SkyWest 0%, PSA Airlines 0% |
| United Airlines | 1,585 | 76% | 1.2% | −3 min | 8.1% | +74 min | United Airlines 82%, SkyWest 9%, Republic Airways 9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at ORD). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | American Airlines | United Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 7 a.m. | — | 83% |
| 8 a.m. | 87% | — |
| 9 a.m. | 81% | 84% |
| 10 a.m. | — | 79% |
| 11 a.m. | — | 75% |
| 1 p.m. | 62% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 71% | 76% |
| 5 p.m. | 52% | — |
| 6 p.m. | 55% | 62% |
| 8 p.m. | 48% | — |
Last flight of the day
On ORD → RDU, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 4.1% of the time, against 1.8% for its earlier flights (2.3× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 4.4% of the time (earlier flights: 1.8%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 8:50 p.m. | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | first flight 8:18 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 6:25 p.m. | 3.0% | 3.8% | 0.7% | first flight 6:55 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in RDU tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: November (82%). Worst: July (66%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 575 | 69% | 3.1% |
| Tuesday | 511 | 76% | 1.2% |
| Wednesday | 516 | 74% | 1.2% |
| Thursday | 550 | 73% | 1.5% |
| Friday | 551 | 70% | 1.6% |
| Saturday | 470 | 70% | 3.8% |
| Sunday | 569 | 67% | 3.7% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 63 · air traffic/airport 20 · airline 3
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 4354 | 8:18 a.m. | 165 | 89% | 1.2% | −14 min | Republic Airways |
| UA 2616 | 10:48 a.m. | 154 | 79% | 0.0% | −4 min | United Airlines |
| UA 2091 | 2:13 p.m. | 194 | 75% | 0.0% | −2 min | United Airlines |
| UA 1989 | 6:25 p.m. | 156 | 53% | 1.9% | +10 min | United Airlines |
| AA 600 | 8:45 p.m. | 132 | 43% | 2.3% | +24 min | American Airlines |
| AA 2167 | 8:56 p.m. | 165 | 49% | 4.2% | +13 min | American Airlines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 11 | 0% | 7 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 11 | 0% | 0 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 10 | 0% | 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 8 | 0% | 8 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 5 | 0% | 4 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Chicago or Raleigh. MDW → RDU has been 7 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORD → RDU (this route) | 3,742 | 71% | 2.3% |
| MDW → RDU Chicago Midway to Raleigh-Durham | 960 | 78% | 2.0% |
Questions
How often are flights from ORD to RDU on time?
71% of 3,742 scheduled flights from Chicago, IL to Raleigh/Durham, NC arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 2.3% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly ORD to RDU?
Flights scheduled to leave at 8 a.m. were the most reliable (87% on time). The 8 p.m. departures were the least (48%).
Which airline is most on time from ORD to RDU?
United Airlines: 76% of its 1,585 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 68%.
What month has the most delays from ORD to RDU?
July (66% on time). The best month is November (82%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from ORD to RDU more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last ORD–RDU flight of the day was cancelled 4.1% of the time over the past year, against 1.8% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- RDU → ORD (return)
- Chicago O'Hare (ORD) delays by hour
- Flights into Raleigh-Durham (RDU)
- American Airlines on-time record
- United Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.