72% of flights from Raleigh to Chicago arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 89% of the time; the 5 p.m. ones 44%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (75%). 14% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for RDU → ORD: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 48% of the time. About 1 in 9 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 33 three hours or more; 2.8% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early72%
- 15–30 min late8.2%
- 30–60 min late6.1%
- 1–2 hours late5.2%
- 2–3 hours late2.4%
- 3+ hours late3.0%
- Diverted0.4%
- Cancelled2.8%
Share of all 3,740 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,059 | 70% | 3.5% | −7 min | 11.5% | +95 min | Republic Airways 49%, Envoy 25%, American Airlines 25%, SkyWest 0%, PSA Airlines 0% |
| United Airlines | 1,583 | 75% | 1.8% | −4 min | 8.7% | +102 min | United Airlines 82%, SkyWest 9%, Republic Airways 9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at RDU). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | American Airlines | United Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | 89% | — |
| 6 a.m. | 84% | 89% |
| 7 a.m. | 78% | — |
| 8 a.m. | — | 80% |
| 9 a.m. | 85% | — |
| 10 a.m. | — | 85% |
| noon | 75% | — |
| 1 p.m. | 77% | 77% |
| 3 p.m. | 62% | — |
| 4 p.m. | 63% | — |
| 5 p.m. | — | 44% |
| 6 p.m. | 58% | — |
| 7 p.m. | 53% | — |
Last flight of the day
On RDU → ORD, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 2.7% of the time, against 2.8% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 4.1% of the time (earlier flights: 2.5%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 7:14 p.m. | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | first flight 7:03 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 5:12 p.m. | 1.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% | first flight 8:05 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: November (83%). Worst: July (66%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 575 | 70% | 4.2% |
| Tuesday | 503 | 75% | 2.4% |
| Wednesday | 516 | 75% | 1.2% |
| Thursday | 556 | 72% | 2.5% |
| Friday | 551 | 70% | 1.6% |
| Saturday | 471 | 74% | 3.6% |
| Sunday | 568 | 68% | 4.0% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 72 · air traffic/airport 27 · airline 6
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA 2638 | 6:15 a.m. | 135 | 87% | 2.2% | −5 min | United Airlines |
| AA 2849 | 7:13 a.m. | 179 | 79% | 5.6% | −13 min | American Airlines |
| UA 1448 | 10:00 a.m. | 148 | 84% | 0.0% | −10 min | United Airlines |
| UA 630 | 5:12 p.m. | 134 | 41% | 3.0% | +20 min | United Airlines |
| AA 4563 | 8:17 p.m. | 152 | 58% | 3.3% | +1 min | Republic Airways |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 12 | 0% | 7 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 11 | 0% | 0 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 10 | 0% | 0 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 8 | 0% | 8 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | 7 | 0% | 0 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Raleigh or Chicago. RDU → MDW has been 4 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDU → ORD (this route) | 3,740 | 72% | 2.8% |
| RDU → MDW Raleigh-Durham to Chicago Midway | 960 | 76% | 1.8% |
Questions
How often are flights from RDU to ORD on time?
72% of 3,740 scheduled flights from Raleigh/Durham, NC to Chicago, IL arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 2.8% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly RDU to ORD?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (89% on time). The 5 p.m. departures were the least (44%).
Which airline is most on time from RDU to ORD?
United Airlines: 75% of its 1,583 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 70%.
What month has the most delays from RDU to ORD?
July (66% on time). The best month is November (83%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from RDU to ORD more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last RDU–ORD flight of the day was cancelled 2.7% of the time over the past year, against 2.8% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- ORD → RDU (return)
- Raleigh-Durham (RDU) delays by hour
- Flights into Chicago O'Hare (ORD)
- American Airlines on-time record
- United Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.