82% of flights from Everett to Phoenix arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is better than the typical U.S. route. The 10 a.m. departures ran on time 85% of the time; the 4 p.m. ones 78%. 6% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for PAE → PHX: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 60% of the time. About 1 in 23 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 74 three hours or more; 0.6% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early82%
- 15–30 min late6.9%
- 30–60 min late4.9%
- 1–2 hours late2.4%
- 2–3 hours late0.6%
- 3+ hours late1.3%
- Diverted1.2%
- Cancelled0.6%
Share of all 668 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 640 | 83% | 0.6% | −8 min | 3.9% | +57 min | Alaska Airlines 88%, Horizon Air 12% |
| Frontier Airlines | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at PAE). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Alaska Airlines |
|---|---|
| 10 a.m. | 86% |
| 2 p.m. | 84% |
| 4 p.m. | 78% |
Last flight of the day
On PAE → PHX, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time, against 1.1% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 1.5% of the time (earlier flights: 0.4%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 2:52 p.m. | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | first flight 10:36 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: May (91%). Worst: January (68%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 112 | 74% | 0.9% |
| Tuesday | 86 | — | — |
| Wednesday | 78 | — | — |
| Thursday | 101 | 85% | 0.0% |
| Friday | 102 | 83% | 2.0% |
| Saturday | 84 | — | — |
| Sunday | 105 | 75% | 0.9% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 2 · weather 2
Month by month
Not enough months with data to draw a trend.
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 747 | 10:36 a.m. | 145 | 87% | 0.0% | −10 min | Alaska Airlines |
| AS 515 | 2:52 p.m. | 159 | 76% | 0.0% | −4 min | Alaska Airlines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 3 | 0% | 0 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Everett or Phoenix. None has been clearly more reliable than PAE → PHX.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAE → PHX (this route) | 668 | 82% | 0.6% |
| SEA → PHX Seattle-Tacoma to Phoenix Sky Harbor | 7,205 | 77% | 0.7% |
Questions
How often are flights from PAE to PHX on time?
82% of 668 scheduled flights from Everett, WA to Phoenix, AZ arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.6% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly PAE to PHX?
Flights scheduled to leave at 10 a.m. were the most reliable (85% on time). The 4 p.m. departures were the least (78%).
What month has the most delays from PAE to PHX?
January (68% on time). The best month is May (91%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from PAE to PHX more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last PAE–PHX flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time over the past year, against 1.1% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- PHX → PAE (return)
- Seattle Paine (PAE) delays by hour
- Flights into Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX)
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.